Ron Paul Won’t Be THE MAN In St. Paul Next September
I’ve been thinking about Ron Paul. Not sitting around pining over his fund-raising success this week, but pondering about his message overall.
I’m thinking that some folks are starved to hear someone talk about the war and not just talking around it with grand declarations like many of the candidates for president are doing.
I don’t understand why politicians don’t get that folks can handle frank talk, but I digress. And, as I’ve said before, it’s amazing for me to hear people treat him like a rock star. Ironically, I hear more people talk about Ron Paul and Bill Richardson than all of the other candidates, which I find to be very different than what I see in the mainstream media.
But, in many ways and here is where I’m going to piss some of you off, I cannot see him winning the Republican nomination. And I think in the American psyche, we love the plain spoken underdog and Paul does fit that category but the man has baggage. Southern Beale touched on many of these things in a post from earlier this week.
And, alas, here is why I think he is resonating with people and they like him. He’s blunt and he’s talking about a very unpopular war. Don’t get me wrong, I like it when he puts the other GOP candidates on alert during the debates when they talk about the war. But we live in a nation that for seven years anytime the White House Administration didn’t like they way things were going they would throw out emotional items that people pay attention to like illegal immigration, gay marriage, the right to choose issues to totally side-track what was really going on.
And, Paul’s camp knows that right now people want to talk about the war and that we need to take care of things at home, but what about the other things.
I also believe Paul’s blunt talk is the reason why Fred Thompson hasn’t been the rock star for the GOP during this campaign recently. Paul is doing the plain spoken thing that Fred Thompson, logistically, has been known for and he’s beating the lawyer/actor/former senator in that race hands down. Thompson looks like an insider, which he is.
And, with this happening, isn’t it proof that people are seeing through the fabrication of political consultants a bit more than they used to. Paul has taken some of Thompson’s thunder.
From CBS’s website today:
The latest CBS News poll finds President Bush’s approval rating has fallen to an all-time low of 34 percent, while pessimism about the Iraq war has risen to a new high.
Paul is saying these things out loud and I’m glad, quite frankly, but, anyway you look at it, he’s still extremely conservative and doesn’t hit it out of the park for me for all the other reasons. As for his message about the war, yes, he has hit a home run. But solo shots don’t always win games now do they?
And I ask rhetorically, do voters look at the whole package? Or do they pick and choose the one or two issues that rings true for a national leader for them?
The field of candidates for president on both sides is completely underwhelming. I was asked at a fund-raiser last night where my hat was. I had to back up and say that I didn’t know.
Politics in Washington is standing still. Congress, run by the Dems, hasn’t impacted anything. The president is still running amok. And polls one year out, in my opinion, are meaningless. Give it three months and they will have more weight.
But Paul is making it interesting as I sit on the sidelines. I just don’t think he’s going to be standing on the stage at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul next September with balloons falling from the ceiling, men and women in the crowd wearing little elephants on their lapels.
I just don’t think it’s going to happen.
I agree with what you say, and think it’s really sad that this bold talk against the war is something the DEMOCRATS should, by rights, be doing–but they’re too chickenshit and politically correct to do it.
At a Titans game a couple weeks back Ron Paul’s supporters were out waving banners and shouting “Vote for Ron Paul, the only anti-war Republican candidate!” There is no doubt that Paul’s anti-war stance is this candidate’s main selling point. And it should be a wake-up call to both the Democrats and other Republicans.
That said, a Rasmussen poll last week showed Stephen Colbert getting more nationwide support than either Ron Paul or Dennis Kucinich. So that ought to tell you something right there.
A wise friend once told me that “90 percent of what happens on the internet doesn’t mean anything.” And I think this is true. Internet support doesn’t necessarily manifest as wide-scale public support.
There’s definitely some shrewd strategizing in the Paul camp; he never goes off message. But I think he can hide behind this anti-war, libertarian thing for so long and some ugly truths are going to come out about him. We will find out his position on abortion, gay rights, and other social hot buttons. And it ain’t going to be pretty.
Agreed.
The so-called scientific polls are either consciosly rigged or use such a segmented part of the Republican base (which has shrunk to 6.6%) that the results are meaningless. The internet polls or the straw polls from around the country are far more accurate. Leaving the extreme results still gives 35-45% Ron Paul supporters.
As a Ron Paul delegate I will look forward to seeing you as Ron Paul accepts the nomination in September at the GOP convention in St. Paul.
Ron Paul represents something that’s extremely rare in the Republican party, a real man that’s not content to spend his days on his knees before the GOP man-god, Chimpy McCokespoon.
Other than that, he’s just another privatize-everything clown that ultimately will do this country harm by pandering to corporate monopoly.
Unacceptable as President, but perhaps a decent VP choice for Edwards or Kucinich.
[...] Newscoma thinks that Ron Paul blatant disregard for lines of permissible dissent of political palaver has taken a bit of the sheen off of Fred Thompson’s plain talk: I also believe Paul’s blunt talk is the reason why Fred Thompson hasn’t been the rock star for the GOP during this campaign recently. Paul is doing the plain spoken thing that Fred Thompson, logistically, has been known for and he’s beating the lawyer/actor/former senator in that race hands down. Thompson looks like an insider, which he is. Share and Enjoy: These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages. [...]
A lot of servicepeople and veterans are for Ron Paul despite the anti-war stance, not because of it.
what I am hoping for is that, if he loses the primaries, RP can get control of the decision making process for choosing Republican candidates for Congress.
I think that is what happened with Howard Dean. Am I right? Does Dean now have power to choose candidates for the Dem party?
Howard Dean has a lot of influence in the process. Thank God.
Were it not for Dean we might have been infected by the Ford Germ and end up with 1 1/2 feet in the grave like the DLC.
Kenneth,
The internet polls or the straw polls from around the country are far more accurate. Leaving the extreme results still gives 35-45% Ron Paul supporters.
Do you seriously believe this?
Ned, I’m with you on that. I think the polls are interesting but change on a dime. Later on, I think they will carry more weight.
[...] Ive been thinking about Ron Paul. Not sitting around pining over his fund-raising success this week, but pondering about his message overall. Im thinking that some folks are starved to hear someone talk about the war and not just talking around it with grand declarations like many of the candidates for president are doing. I dont understand why politicians dont get that folks can handle frank talk, but I digress. And, as Ive said before, its amazing for me to hear people treat him like source: newscoma [...]
True, most people (and even “likely voters”) aren’t paying attention to this stuff right now . . . most people (reasonably) avoid thinking about politics as much as possible. But some of these polls are even more of a waste because they include people who are not likely to step into a booth and vote on election day. That is one thing about the Paul people, they are committed, and you can count on them to vote, but they aren’t the only ones.