NewscomaGot A Two-Pack Habit And A Motel Tan

Tennessee politics can be a very interesting thing. This year we have seen the Jason Mumpower/Kent Williams hootenanny, a crowded race for governor on both sides of the spectrum (I’m not talking about that one) and this week’s hokey pokey with the announcement of John Tanner citing he wasn’t going to run for another term, thus ending two decades in Washington.

Freddy Freddie O’Connell wrote today about Roy Herron throwing his hat into the congressional race and I do think it’s because he always wanted to run for the 8th. It’s been pretty much common knowledge around “these parts” for a long time as I wrote about earlier this week. I sat at a middle school basketball game last night and even folks who could care less about politics where talking about this. (Always remember, you will meet real voters at things like this. Nine times out of 10, if you are at a community event, a coffee shop or even a bar, you are going to hear what people are really thinking and they honestly only care about the election when it gets into the meat of it.)  The overall theme was that Roy has wanted to run for that seat for a long time. No one was really surprised that he went for it within hours of John Tanner’s retirement presser.

Now onto the primary as I’ve been thinking about it and talking to other political junkies here in Hoots where we’ve discussed this. You know, this race is going to have four primary television markets and I do believe that the national GOP is watching this carefully. You are going to have Nashville, Memphis, Jackson and add into the mix a bit of WPSD in Paducah which is a huge source in the upper corner here in northwest Tennessee. Two small markets and two huge television markets which are going to add up to some big dough-re-mi. That is most likely going to be on the mind of anyone even thinking about getting into the primary race.

One thing that John Tanner did very selflessly is give a one-year’s notice because whoever runs in this primary is going to have to have some jack. Already there is talk of a Dr. Ron Kirkland seeking the GOP slot out of Jackson. Other candidates names being tossed around for the Dems are Philip Pinion, Doug Jackson, Judy Barker and Mary Kate Ridgeway (and in the spirit of disclosure, I used to work for her husband, Don, when I was a program coordinator at NWTEDC.) More names will pop up in the next few days, I’m sure. The domino effect will also be into play regarding the 24th state senate seat. Who will seek the 24th if Roy were to win? If that person is already in office, and as an example of Barker/Jackson who haven’t decided yet to run or Mark Maddox who says he won’t seek John’s seat, who will seek their office if that scenario were to come to fruition? I’m thinking long term here, of course. And I’m not really talking about Jimmy Naifeh because I just don’t know if seeking this seat at 70 years-old is going to happen. Who knows? Willie Herenton says he will run against Steve Cohen, so one never knows a definitive answer with those two guys.

No one wants to talk about money for campaign races during economic times like these. And with this one getting national attention, you can bet the  parties in Washington are observing carefully what what is being said around the state. I also believe, because of the 8th’s high visibility, that we are going to see Mainstream Media more involved in this race. Sometimes they get involved, other times they don’t. As of this morning and since Tuesday, there were more than 300 news stories on Google talking about Tanner. He is a co-creator of the Blue Dog Democrats. He has the NATO thing going on. This time, I think you are going to hear a lot of traditional press.

The bottom line in this early time in the game is that this race is going to take a great deal of funding, it’s going to get a lot of attention and those Republicrats that tended to vote for Tanner (and they did) are going to be weighing their vote more heavily because this area has suffered huge job losses in recent history which is much of what I’m hearing being discussed. Tanner is what they knew and although not everyone adored him, he was well liked creating almost a new brand of voters for those in the middle who weren’t tied to a party line all the time for the past 20 years.

With what appears might be a crowded field on both sides, it’s going to take a lot of cash to get attention to win that seat.